Costa Rican Real Estate Market Forecast: What’s Next for 2026 and Beyond?

If Costa Rica has been calling your name, you’re not alone. From Guanacaste’s sun-splashed beaches to the breezy Central Valley and lush Southern Zone, buyers keep asking the same question: what’s the market going to look like in 2026 and beyond? Below, I’ll break down the big forces shaping demand (tourism, infrastructure, policy, and the global economy), where the smart money is looking, and how to time your move—whether you’re eyeing a second home, relocation, or a rental-friendly investment.

The Big Picture: Solid Economy, Mixed Tourism, Rising Selectivity

Macro outlook. Major forecasters anticipate Costa Rica's steady growth through 2026–2027, driven by domestic consumption and services. The World Bank projects ~3.5% growth in 2025 and an average near the high-3% range in 2026–2027—healthy for a diversified, service-heavy economy.

Tourism pulse. Tourism is Costa Rica’s calling card—and a key driver for short-term rental returns. After a strong rebound, 2024–mid-2025 brought some softer months year-over-year. ICT data reported several monthly dips through June 2025, with U.S., Canadian, and European arrivals easing—something investors should track because it directly touches occupancy and nightly rates.

What this means for buyers. Demand hasn’t vanished; it’s becoming more selective. Properties that check today’s boxes—walkable amenities, fiber internet, modern A/C, solar or energy-efficient features, and clear property rights—will capture outsized demand in 2026+ even if arrivals zig-zag.

Policy Tailwinds: Digital Nomad Visa & Lifestyle Migration

Remote work remains sticky. Costa Rica’s digital nomad law (Law 10.008) lets qualifying remote workers live in the country for a year (renewable for another), with income thresholds of $3,000/month for individuals and $5,000/month for families, plus required health insurance. This policy continues to create a steady pipeline of long-stay tenants—especially in beach towns and the Central Valley.

So who benefits?

·       Move-in-ready condos and small homes near cafes, coworking spaces, and the beach (Tamarindo/Langosta, Nosara, Samara, Playas del Coco) or in the Valley (Escazú, Santa Ana, Heredia) remain favorites for medium-term rentals to remote professionals.

·       Homes with dedicated office nooks, fast internet, and quiet A/C will outperform. Expect this feature set to matter more, not less, in 2026+.

Infrastructure: Little Things That Matter a Lot

Costa Rica isn’t standing still on access and travel flow. Guanacaste Airport (LIR, Liberia)—the gateway to the North Pacific—has completed terminal improvements and continues to expand capacity and services (boarding lounge expansion, pet areas, retail), supporting sustained international connectivity. For investors, that usually means more routes, smoother travel, and a broader guest pool. Tico TimesLiberia ShuttleAviacionline

Investor takeaway: Properties within 60–90 minutes of an international airport (LIR for the North Pacific, SJO for Central Valley/Central Pacific) retain a premium. As airlines tune capacity, airport-adjacent markets tend to be the first to feel increased demand.

Segment-by-Segment Forecast (2026+)

1) North Pacific (Guanacaste: Tamarindo, Langosta, Avellanas, Flamingo, Coco/Playa Hermosa)

·       Why it leads: Airport connectivity, reliable sunshine, established expat scene, and rental- ready inventory.

·       2026 outlook: Balanced growth with a quality premium—think well-managed condos/townhomes with amenities (pools, gyms, security) and beach-walkable locations. Nightly rates may remain competitive, but best-in-class listings will continue to outperform.

·       Watchlist: HOA quality, water availability, and true walkability (guests will read those reviews!).

2) Central Pacific (Jacó, Herradura, Manuel Antonio/Quepos)

·       Why it’s interesting: Drive to coastal markets from SJO with plentiful activities and year- round tourism appeal.

·       2026 outlook: Solid for short-term rentals, especially two-bedroom condos and compact villas near marinas and national park gateways.

·       Watchlist: Seasonality (dry vs. green season pricing) and professional management— these markets reward dynamic pricing.

3) Central Valley (Escazú, Santa Ana, Heredia, Grecia)

·       Why it’s trending: Healthcare access, international schools, cooler temps, and city conveniences—ideal for relocators and long-stays.

·       2026 outlook: Stable, end-user-led demand with a growing medium-term rental niche (3– 6+ months) for remote workers and relocating families.

·       Watchlist: Commute patterns and micro-climate (sun, wind, afternoon rain) still matter. Fiber internet is non-negotiable.

4) Nicoya Peninsula / Blue Zone (Nosara, Samara, Montezuma, Santa Teresa)

·       Why it’s hot: Wellness lifestyle, surf, design-forward builds, eco-credentials.

·       2026 outlook: Constrained supply and high land values should keep prices resilient in A+ pockets. Under-the-radar micro-neighborhoods with infrastructure upgrades offer the best upside.

·       Watchlist: Road access, water letters, and permitting timelines—do your diligence.

5) Southern Zone (Uvita, Ojochal, Dominical)

·       Why it’s rising: Big ocean views, jungle backdrops, boutique luxury, evolving culinary scene.

·       2026 outlook: Upscale villas with view pools and strong management keep performing. Medium-term stays may expand as remote workers trade crowds for nature.

·       Watchlist: Drive times and slope; hillside engineering and drainage are worth every colon.

Pricing & Financing: Expect “Value Sorting,” Not a Free-For-All

·       Pricing path. With a steady macro backdrop and selective tourism, expect value sorting in 2026: turnkey, walkable, fiber-ready homes hold or rise; fixer-uppers without a clear plan lag. Macro shocks aside, a broad correction is less likely than micro-level repricing based on quality and location.

·       Financing reality. Local bank lending remains available but can be conservative for foreigners; many buyers still arrive with cash, equity from home-country refinances, or seller financing on select deals. Plan timelines early so you can pounce when the right property appears.

Short-Term Rentals (STR): Winners in 2026

Even with uneven monthly arrivals, professionally managed listings with hotel-like standards—self-check-in, spotless housekeeping, energy-efficient A/C, blackout shades, fast Wi-Fi—are positioned to gain share. In 2026, we expect:

·       More 28–90-day bookings, driven by remote workers and families sampling life here.

·       Amenities arms race: Cold plunge or sauna at a small HOA? Dedicated work space with an ergonomic chair? Those get you saved to more wishlists.

·       Regulatory diligence: Know your canton rules and condo bylaws; choose communities where STR is established and supported.

Sustainability & “Quiet Luxury” Are the New Differentiators

Costa Rica’s sustainability brand isn’t just marketing—it’s marketable. Solar, rainwater collection, shaded design, energy-smart A/C, native landscaping, and quiet luxury finishes (natural materials, indoor-outdoor flow, low-maintenance elegance) are translating into better occupancy, reviews, and resale. Expect this to intensify as utility costs and eco-awareness rise.

Timing Your Move: 3 Practical Plays

1.       Buy the best-located “bread-and-butter” unit you can (2BR condo or compact villa) in a walkable pocket near beach or amenities. It’s the most liquid segment and the easiest to keep filled year-round.

2.       Target medium-term rental demand in the Central Valley or beach towns with coworking. A 90- to 180-day stay can mean lower turnover and steadier cash flow.

3.       Renovate for differentiation: Smart climate design (shading, cross-breeze), water-wise landscaping, and a dedicated workspace can push you into the top quartile of your comp set.

Key Risks to Watch (and How to Hedge)

·       Tourism volatility. Month-to-month swings may persist into 2026. Hedge with medium- term rentals and repeat-guest strategies.

·       Project permitting & utilities. Always verify water letters, zoning, and title—especially near the coast and on hillside lots.

·       Management quality. The best assets underperform without excellent management. Interview more than one firm and demand transparent reporting.

Our 2026+ Call, In One Line

Costa Rica stays a long-term winner—just more discerning. In 2026 and beyond, expect steady end-user demand, selective STR strength, and a premium for well-located, well-managed, and sustainability-minded homes. If you buy quality and think like a guest or tenant, you’re set up to thrive.

Ready to See It Firsthand?

There’s no substitute for walking neighborhoods, feeling micro-climates, testing drive times, and peeking into HOAs. Book a personalized Pura Vida Real Estate Tour, and we’ll map your lifestyle to the right towns, shortlist on-market gems, and connect you with trusted legal and management pros—so you can buy with clarity and confidence.